Important dates:
(purple dashed lines) May 14: Stay-at-Home reversed; May 25: Memorial Day; July 4: Independence Day
(blue dashed lines) March 25: Stay-at-Home order; Aug 1: WI mask mandate
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Active cases: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going. Even given the testing lag, a conservative approximation is to use the total number of positive (diagnosed) cases across the last 10 days. We will go with this standard, along with a range from 10-14 days of active accumulation, and adjust as more precise information becomes available. 14 days corresponds with two-week standard in place in MN school decisions.
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 24 2020 | 728 | 17271 | 6 | 83 | 138 |
| August 25 2020 | 737 | 17374 | 6 | 83 | 141 |
| August 26 2020 | 748 | 17439 | 6 | 90 | 136 |
| August 27 2020 | 768 | 17453 | 6 | 100 | 139 |
| August 28 2020 | 780 | 17458 | 6 | 107 | 135 |
| August 29 2020 | 790 | 17494 | 6 | 111 | 136 |
| August 30 2020 | 801 | 17506 | 6 | 114 | 143 |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 24 2020 | 302 | 11610 | 0 | 43 | 63 |
| August 25 2020 | 304 | 11638 | 0 | 38 | 63 |
| August 26 2020 | 312 | 11727 | 0 | 38 | 68 |
| August 27 2020 | 323 | 11824 | 0 | 44 | 71 |
| August 28 2020 | 331 | 11880 | 0 | 50 | 72 |
| August 29 2020 | 342 | 11987 | 0 | 58 | 76 |
| August 30 2020 | 345 | 12079 | 0 | 57 | 71 |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 24 2020 | 358 | 6863 | 3 | 38 | 63 |
| August 25 2020 | 359 | 6867 | 3 | 36 | 63 |
| August 26 2020 | 362 | 6880 | 3 | 36 | 54 |
| August 27 2020 | 363 | 6883 | 3 | 35 | 48 |
| August 28 2020 | 367 | 7377 | 3 | 31 | 47 |
| August 29 2020 | 371 | 7376 | 3 | 25 | 45 |
| August 30 2020 | 370 | 7406 | 3 | 22 | 42 |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 24 2020 | 70854 | 1119622 | 1081 | 6627 | 9793 |
| August 25 2020 | 71492 | 1128971 | 1094 | 6436 | 9707 |
| August 26 2020 | 72260 | 1138581 | 1100 | 6519 | 9997 |
| August 27 2020 | 73138 | 1148494 | 1111 | 6942 | 9932 |
| August 28 2020 | 73981 | 1156807 | 1113 | 7151 | 9754 |
| August 29 2020 | 74800 | 1164740 | 1119 | 7307 | 9744 |
| August 30 2020 | 75337 | 1169302 | 1122 | 7104 | 9596 |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level. Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan) and SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based off of reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | -- | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 40 | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 40 | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | '' '' '' |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13.7 | 36.8 | 11.3 | 9.6 | 14.9% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 6.3 | 5.7 | 7.5% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9.7 | 1.4 | 5 | 2.2% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16.5 | 31.2 | 696.4 | 747.1 | 8.3% |
Important Resources:
https://topic.newsbreak.com/covid-19.html?zip=19934&s=dmg_local_briefing.web2
Re-opening Trends: that is, why didn't the first wave end?
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 24.3 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.35 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2020-09-20 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 1212"